Analysis: Human Civilization Could Collapse by 2050

Analysis: Human Civilization Could Collapse by 2050

Human civilization will collapse by 2050, according to an Australian climate change analysis endorsed by a former Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander.

According to the analysis, which was published by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, a think-tank based in Melbourne, Australia, climate change is “a current and existential national security risk” that “threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”

We’re “on a path to the end of human civilisation and modern society as we know it.” The study calls climate change “a near-to-mid-term existential threat to human civilization.”



The analysis that human systems might reach a “point of no return” by 2050, where “the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and international order.”

The paper concludes the solution is a “society-wide, emergency mobilisation of labour and resources” that would be “akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilization.”



A “Marshall Plan-style construction of zero-carbon-dioxide energy supply and major electrification to build zero-carbon industrial strategy” is the solution, the analysis reads, which could limit global warming to just 1.5 degrees Celsius. Previous reports warn about a 3 degrees Celsius change.

“Even for 2°C of warming, more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end,” the report reads.

If climate change is not stymied, one billion people could be forced to flee unlivable conditions, with two billion facing scarcity of water supplies. The sub-tropics would endure an agricultural collapse and food production would suffer dramatically worldwide.