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The Great Lockdown Precedes Worst Depression Since World War II

The Great Lockdown will lead to the worst depression since World War II.

Not since 1870 have so many economies simultaneously experienced declines in per capita output.

Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to contract the most in 2020 for the first time in no fewer than 60 years.

According to the World Bank, the global economy has experienced 14 global recessions since 1870; that is, in the years 1876, 1885, 1893, 1908, 1914, 1917-21, 1930-32, 1938, 1945-46, 1975, 1982, 1991, 2009, and 2020.

The COVID-19 recession will be the deepest since 1945-1946 and at least more than twice as worse than the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.

Many services have suddenly stopped, and global trade and oil consumption has dropped by record amounts this year, as the global rate of unemployment climbs to its highest level since 1965. In 1980-82, oil consumption declined 9% from its peak in 1979.

Oil inventories have surged, leading to the steepest one-month decline in oil prices on record having taken place in March.

5 out of 6 emerging market and developing economies are projected to fall into “outright recession,” enduring their lowest growth in at least 60 years.

All will see decreases in regional per capita output for the first time during a global recession since 1960.